2026 Men's Tour de France Preview
The return of the king...again.
Previously...
Tadej Pogacar easily dispatched all-comers for the second year in a row, taking four stages and the mountains classification in the process. Jonathan Milan won the points competition and Florian Lipowitz the young rider classification. Wout van Aert won the final stage on the non-traditional but now canonical Champs-Élysées.
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| The (only) one that got away |
The Course
Starts in Catalunya, then hits the Pyrenees before the Massif Central, then the Vosges mountains, and finally the Alps before the finish in Paris. There are rumblings of independence protests in during the Barcelona stages, so we'll see if the race can start without a hitch or if we'll see some 2025 Vuelta-style neutralized or preemptive finishes.
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| The 2026 route in all its glory |
To be blunt, we Pogacar in the race, any stage has the potential to be a decisive. But, regardless, here are some of my key stages:
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| Stage 2 profile |
The one where Pogacar takes the yellow jersey and keeps it until the finish. Kidding! Not really. Actually, I would not be surprised if both the first and second stages end up neutralized due to protests. If not, I do think Pogacar will spring into the lead here.
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| Stage 6 profile |
The only "proper" day in the Pyrenees, and it could have been made more challenging (okay, it's still pretty difficult). But the finishing climb doesn't look to be anything special.
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| Stage 14 profile |
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| Stage 15 profile |
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| Stage 19 profile |
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| Stage 20 profile |
The Contenders
TADEJ POGACAR -- Rapidly approaching GOAT territory, if not there already; all he has done this year is take a paltry three monuments, a second place in a fourth, and win two of the more prestigious stage races on the professional calendar. And, including GC victories, he has won 13 out of 18 competitions this year. And, not only that, he has made many of those stage victories look...easy. To be blunt (again), I think he has taken essentially all the wind out of essentially all the (metaphorical) sails in the peloton. Even breakaway stages no longer seem safe when Pogacar is willing and ready to wind it up on a climb 100 km from the finishing line. Some (many?) say this has made racing boring, and the only excitement is the anticipation of a long-range attack or watching those behind flounder in the chase. Of course, Pogacar should show fewer shenanigans in such a long race, but you never know. Clearly the outright favorite for the win (despite protests of a Danish contingent), the only questions are by how much and what will he leave for the rest of them? And, oh, by the way, his team might also have the second favorite...
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| Seemingly the only thing he can't do... |
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| He'll be bowing to another for the next three weeks |
ISAAC DEL TORO -- The young Mexican would be the golden boy on any other team. Winner of the UAE Tour, Tirreno, and the race formerly known as the Criterium du Dauphine this year, he is another whose accelerations have been nigh on impossible to follow. He showed big GC chops in the Giro last year (though the strategic mismanagement of the endgame was epic), and I hope UAE give him freedom to pursue the young rider classification and the podium in lieu of being an über-mega-super domestique for Pogacar and give him a chance to beat out...
PAUL SEXIAS -- The French The people of France have turned up their hopes to 11 after a spring where this young man took some big wins (Fleche, Itzulia) and some big runners-up to Pogacar (Strade, Liege). However, he's a bit raw (first grand tour) for such great expectations, methinks. But, he is climbing exceptionally well. A podium would be great, but I think he'll fade a bit down the stretch, which I really don't think will happen with...
| A different shade of yellow |
JONAS VINEGAARD -- Okay, it took a while to get to the second favorite, but I wanted to keep the narrative structure (no, I am not going to re-do the narrative structure). There's a lot of press coming out of his camp about him finally regaining his pre-Itzulia-crash form, which is great, but I'm not sure it matters. To me Pogacar is in another universe, and the cruelty of this sport is that three years is a long time between Tour victories (okay, Pogacar has done it but whatever). This sounds a bit crazy given he is going for the Froome sweep of owning all three grand tour GC jerseys at the same time, but there was no Pogacar (or Sexias...or del Toro...or Carapaz...or Lipowitz...or Evenepoel...you get the picture), so this one here is a whole different kettle of fisk. Is he second best right now...maybe, but I think del Toro is up there. But, Vingegaard is the clear leader on Visma and they all think he can win (he can...but it's not likely). The team is about as good as UAE, so, if there are any big missteps from UAE and Pogacar, Vingegaard and Visma could really clean up. It should be entertaining!
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| One that Pogacar doesn't have |
FLORIAN LIPOWITZ -- Last year's third place finisher and best young rider is back looking to repeat the feat (okay, he has aged out of the young rider competition, but you know what I mean). Encouraging that he was best able to follow Pogacar's accelerations in Romandie, but a pretty quiet year for him otherwise (okay, a couple of stage wins and the overall at the Tour of Slovenia, but come on). Definitely a challenger for the podium if he can wrest leadership of Red Bull-Bora away from...
REMCO EVENEPOEL -- ...perhaps the biggest free-agent signing of the off-season. He disappeared to altitude following the spring classics and hasn't been seen since. Despite a relatively successful first half of the season (three stage wins, GC in Valenciana, three classics wins including Amstel Gold), it's simply not enough for a rabid Belgian fanbase and the expections heaped upon one with such a generous salary (see: Roglic, Primoz). As a reward, Red Bull-Bora are rolling up to the Tour will the always successful Movistar strategy of multiple GC leaders. Last year it didn't work super well pairing their highly paid superstar rider with Lipowitz, and I don't see it going any better this year. Lipowitz was a bit better in Catalunya, and I think he will be a bit better here as well. We'll see if everybody falls in line this time 'round.
Others who will be eying the podium include, but are not limited to, JUAN AYUSO, RICHARD CARAPAZ, TOBIAS HALLAND JOHANNESSEN, TOM PIDCOCK, ANTONIO TIBERI, and maybe THYMEN ARENSMAN.
The Points Competition
TIM MERLIER -- Has the best kick in the bunch right now and the ASO changes the rules this year specifically so Pogacar can't win. I'm predicting four stage wins for the Belgian and a continuation of teammate Magnier's success from the Giro.
JASPER PHILIPSEN -- Four stages wins plus a GC on the year, he is coming back a bit from a down year in 2025. The question is how much disaster will we see this year? I think Soudal will drill it a bit better despite Alpecin having van der Poel (and great hair). He'll still likely get one or two wins
BINIAM GIRMAY -- Another with a down year last year after a breakout 2024, he has three wins but not much in the big spring classics this year. I don't think he'll challenge seriously for the green jersey this year, but a stage win is not difficult to foresee.
VAN DER POEL -- Ehh...I think he'll be a team player and support Phillipsen in the sprints, but he will get plenty of freedom to get in the breakaway and drill it out front. But I don't think he'll be focussing on the points this time 'round.
Mountains
I never have any idea who to pick here...the most likely choice is Pogacar, but that is a bit boring. I usually think it will be someone around the top 10 in GC who goes for this jersey as a consolation prize.
BEN HEALY -- Loves breakaways and is a great climber but wont be looking to challenge for the GC, could very much be a Goldilocks position for the mountains jersey
MICHAEL STORER -- Another who is quite fit right now but I don't think has the chops to seriously challenge for the podium but is a legitimate Top 10 man here. Tudor don't really have a serious GC threat, so why not?
LENNY MARTINEZ -- He was third in this competition last year and is climbing like a bomb right now, but why is his bottle so sticky?
Youth
Let's go with ISAAC DEL TORO
Prediction
No shaking throne...Pogacar wins big (again) and gets one for the thumb. Second place again to Vingegaard and del Toro in third (and youth competition winner). Merlier for the points and Lenny Martinez (sans sticky bottle) with mountains
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| Thanks for reading |
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