2024 UCI Road Race World Championships WE Preview

 The big dance...this year it's a waltz on the Zürichsee.


Profile from procyclingstats.com

Long-ish, but not the marathon grind (270+ km) that is the men's race. However, the length with the circuit climb will make it selective -- only one of top five riders in the peloton will win on the day. The startlist is absolute quality, there's at least ten riders with a legitimate shot at winning...it should be a smashing race.

Finishing circuit

Circuit climb
It looks like the finishing circuit plus the embedded climb is tackled four times on the day...there's also a 0.7 km longer kicker at 8.4% on each lap. To be honest, the winning move could be launched there with a follow-up on the ultimate climb. The climb is short and shallow enough that a classics rider could very well take the win, but, with the amount of total vertical, all the sprinters should have folded by the final ascent of the circuit climb. IBut, with ~20 km of downhill/flat after the final climb, the winner will need to be handy in time trailing, sprinting, or both. t's also scheduled to rain all day Saturday, which will make things treacherous.

Contenders

LOTTE KOPECKY -- The defending champion comes in on fine form, with some exceptional recent climbing and TT performances despite "underperforming" with a fifth place in the ITT last weekend. Honestly, this route is very, very well suited for the Belgian, although, with the way she's been climbing this year, it might be better if the ascents were more difficult. Regardless, I think the rest of the Belgian team is happy to go all-in for Kopecky in this race, which means a lot in these national races. The same might not be true for...

THE NETHERLANDS -- Normally, I think Vollering would be the shoe-in for favorite status (and may very well be behind closed doors), but Puck Pieterse has also be exceptional recently, although with no racing since the Tour. Furthermore, they have Vos, de Jong, Bredewold, Markus, and Rooijakkers, who could all have no-zero probability of winning this race if given full support. Is it possible they brought too much quality/leaders to this race? If they are able to marshal every behind Vollering, I think they win pretty much tear the race apart by the final climb and could take multiple spots on the podium. 

ELISA LONGO BOURGHINI -- Approaching the close of a barnstorming season, her results haven't been relatively great since winning the Giro, but the riding has been good. Another team with a potential winner (Balsamo), I think they will all get behind Longo Bourghini, no leadership issues here. Finishing off the podium will be a big disappointment.

KRISTEN FAULKNER -- Olympic RR champion hasn't raced since the Tour, so the form chart is a bit unknown. The U.S. team is actually quite good this year especially with Dygert and Stephens for support. Should challenge for top 5.

KASIA NIEWIADOMA -- Another whose form is unknown following the Tour. Despite the win there and at Fleche earlier in the year, she (unfortunately) rarely wins, but is almost a shoe-in for top 5 given how aggressively she races. I expect she's not at top form after such an emotionally draining Tour win, but that doesn't mean a top 5 isn't possible.

JULIETTE LABOUS -- Another who has been there or thereabouts all year, but only one win to show for it in the French RR national championships. France's team is quality, and it's a good course for Labous, so top 5 or 10 is expected.

GRACE BROWN -- The last season for the Australian and, coming into the race, her hand is as hot as anyone else's. Her results in the second half of the season outside of TTs haven't been great, but she won LBL this year in similar conditions in a bunch sprint from the heads of state, so why not? Very much capable of winning, especially since the high-quality Australian team should give her full support.

LIANE LIPPERT -- Also going very well right now in a come-back season from injury. It's a great course for her, and the German team is also very good. Top 5?

Prediction

Wind it back to April...Grace Brown wins from a select group. Kopecky and Vollering complete the podium.


  




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