Christmas in July? Maybe for a certain Slovenian...it's been another orbit around the celestial body at the center of our solar system, meaning it's once again Tour time.
Previously...
France won the first two stages (including a very nice yellow jersey for the soon-to-be-retired Romain Bardet) before Tadej Pogacar went on a 19-day barnstorming tour of France, swiping five stages and eviscerating all-comers, including his two closest rivals, both still on the mend from a horror crash in El País Vasco. Regardless, it was likely the most dominant performance in over a decade, since the glory days of the mechanical Team Sky GC juggernaut. In short, UAE and Pogacar put everyone to the sword early and once again ascended to men's professional cycling's throne on the legendary boulevard of...erm, in Nice. UAE once again bring a murder's row of support riders and all three of Pogacar's biggest rivals have once again faced major setbacks in their preparations for the world's biggest cycling race, will this year be the rare sequel that surpasses the original or will the scepter once again switch hands?
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| Was there ever any doubt? |
The Route
An anticlockwise year...and no pesky Olympics (we have an air traffic controller strike instead), so the finish is back on the legendary boulevard of the Champs-Élysées
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| The 2025 route courtesy of procyclingstats.com |
It's 3338.8 kilometers in length, and goes Massiff Central --> Pyrenees --> Alps. No big mountain stages until the second week, but the first week is lumpy, and I expect Pogacar to take yellow on the second day (not a joke; will certainly happen barring accident or illness on the Mur de Bretagne). There is also a long. flat TT in the first week plus a cruel 10 km mountain TT in the second week.
With Pogacar in the race, just about every stage is a key stage, but here are what I think will be the REALLY key stages.
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| Stage 5 profile |
I see stages 2 and 7 turning to GC stages in the first week, but the climbs shouldn't (re: if UAE doesn't rip the script) produce huge gaps on GC give their (lack of ) length. However, the 33 km TT on stage 5 will absolutely produce massive GC gaps. Anyone who can't put down the power on the flats will almost certainly lose several minutes to Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Pogacar on this day (Enric Mas? Guillame Martin? Lenny Martinez? Felix Gall?).
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| Stage 10 profile |
Okay, I lied -- the last stage of the first "week" (stage 10) has a nasty profile (4.3+ km of vertical gain), but with no steep climbs. In the last week of a grand tour, this stage would be perfect for a GC ambush. However, coming before the first rest day, this one could instead sort out who has the legs and who doesn't. Anyone who gets dropped early is in for a long day in the office...
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| Stage 12 profile |
The first big mountain test...it's so important, TV2 is putting it on the bus stop advertisements around Copenhagen. A classic long-ish stage with a cat 1 - HC one-two punch, we will really see who hasn't draw a good hand this July.
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| Stage 13 profile |
Ouch...the next day is 10 km straight up the Peyragudes on a TT bike (eh...probably not...maybe some will change from TT bike [if allowed] at the start of the climb). Not much to say here except that, if the climbing legs aren't good, you're out a few more minutes on GC.
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| Stage 13 profile |
Then the next day is 5+ km of vertical in 183 km of horizontal...rude! Regardless, with the Tourmalet in play, it's a huge day for those with polka dots on the brain. But will Pogacar ruin their fun?
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| Stage 16 profile |
Mount Ventoux is back, oh yeah! I don't think it's feature since the double ascent in something like 2021. Pogacar will really want to win here.
Stage 18 and 19 are both monster climbing days (combined over 10 km of vertical) and, again, will be hugely important for those looking for mountains points. I think the race will be finished many times over by this point, but, as a wise man once said, it ain't over 'til it's over. And, remember, Pogacar's engine blew on the Col de la Loze in 2023...could it happen again this year (no...sorry).
The Contenders
We once again have the return of the Tȟuŋkášila Šákpe (Mount Rushmore) of CG cyclist's from the men's peloton: Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Roglic (at least in my opinion). Of course this year's Giro winner Simon Yates is here as well as former Tour winner Geraint Thomas, former Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss, as well as the Movistar ¡attack! hexagon, but I think there are only three with a legitimate shot...
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| Spotted on the prowl in Siena this spring |
TADEJ POGACAR -- The Mercx comparisons are now appearing wholly justified. Already this year he has won UAE tour, the Dauphiné, Flanders, Strade, LBL, and Fleche as well as a maiden podium in Roubaix, podium at Milano-San Remo, and runner-up at Amstel Gold. The past year he has shown no hesitation to attack on both the flat and a long, long way from the finishing line. He's always been an aggressive rider, but these attacks are sticking in long stage races (see last year's TdF) without as much as a knock-on effect as e.g. the Col de la Loze in 2023. He's the best climber, a top-10 descender, one of the best TT riders, and can open up gaps on the flats, gravel, and cobbles, and his bike handling is top-notch. Furthermore, his team is a veritable line-up of all stars, almost all of whom would be featured riders on other teams. However, there is no questioning anyone's loyalty -- they are all all-in for the Slovenian. Enjoy the show, folks, because nothing gold can stay, but, right now, this man is 24 carets on the bike. It would surprise no one to see him take another six stages this year.
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| The local legend |
JONAS VINGEGAARD -- Another year, another interrupted build-up to the tour, this time due to a crash in Paris-Nice. Looked much improved in the Dauphiné, but was still well-beaten by Pogacar. However, he is the only one who looked close to matching the Slovenian's accelerations in the mountains, could the extra two weeks make a difference? Despite another with a group of all-stars in support (including two former grand tour winners), the odds of winning look slim. As evidenced by the Giro this year, sometimes UAE don't have the best tactics, but their team here is too good to fail and del Toto simply isn't Pogacar. Sport is cruel, and there is a huge chance Vingegaard never sees the top step in Paris again...and, at the least, I certainly don't think it will be this year.
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| Will it be déjà vu in 2025? |
REMCO EVENEPOEL -- The defending TT world champion and double Olympic gold medalist experience glory in Paris last summer; will it happen again this year? Like Vingegaard, his build-up has been stunted due to a horrible training crash about seven months ago, but he has so far rebounded to take victory in De Brabantse Pijl, three TT stages, and was fourth place in the Dauphiné. A podium placer last year, he seems much better on the long climbs, although he is likely still prone to off days that spell disaster for GC bids. His support team is solid, and it might be good enough for overall glory somewhere like the Vuelta, but this is the Tour in 2025, and I anticipate frequent isolation in the alpine stages. I don't see a gold medal for him in Paris this year; once again, a bronze is more likely.
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| A too-frequent sight |
PRIMOZ ROGLIC -- Another year, another abandon in a grand tour where the GC win was very much in play. The Tour wasn't in the cards this year except for crashing multiple times in the Giro before abandoning on stage 16. He schooled all comers in Catalunya in the spring, but quiet otherwise this year. He's had the misfortune of being caught between the Team Sky and Pogacar eras, and he has been his own worst enemy by hitting the deck once too often, especially in grand tours. He would likely have at least three more GC overalls on the mantel without this (sometimes silly) crashes. But, he can still climb and TT with the best of them...in the improbable that the three above him all simultaneously mis-step, he could be there to clean things up. Otherwise, much like me during my PhD, he might be a bit too old to feature at this party.
EVERYONE ELSE
There will be some others grasping for TV time.
ENRIC MAS -- The fourth or fifth vertex in Movistar's ¡attack! hexagon, he will be a solid top 10 choice, but I don't think he has the sprint to challenge for many stages. He is always solid, but infrequently wins, and I think we will see much of the same this year.
MATTIAS SKJELMOSE -- The Dane is another with an interrupted build-up, but he has taken two very nice classics wins (Amstel and Andorra) since crashing out of Paris-Nice, and he is a super talent, so to challenge for the top 5 should really be a goal.
LENNY MARTINEZ -- Second in Romandie, so the French can hope, but I think it would be better to go for the white jersey.
GUILLAUME MARTIN -- The French can hope.
BEN O'CONNOR -- Last year's fourth place finisher has been well-beaten in the GC in all the stages races he's entered so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. Top 10 for sure, maybe top 5.
KEVIN VANQUELIN -- Wow, that would be amazing. He's been barnstorming this year, including second overall (but well beaten by Almeida) at Suisse, but I really see his team targeting stages instead of GC.
FELIX GALL -- Fourth in Suisse, he is another who should be gunning for Top 5.
Points
JONATHON MILAN -- Lidl-Trek should be here mostly for him, which matters a lot. Not quite as good a year as last year so far, but, to me, he and Merlier are 1 and 1A right now.
TIM MERLIER -- Might be the best sprinter in the peloton right now, but the team have GC ambitions with Evenepoel. How much will this affect the sprint train...in the Tour, it can make a huge difference.
BINIAM GIRMAY -- Last year's points classification winner has been solid this year, but no wins so far. His team are all-in for him, though, so the win column could very well start to re-fill here.
JASPER PHILLIPSEN -- Should have the best lead-out, especially with van der Poel, plus the team is here for him. Although he won KBK, it seems the top-end speed has not been up there with Merlier or Milan so far this year. Can that change in July?
ARNAUD DE LIE -- Another with the full support of the team, but another with an interrupted build up. If he's fit and healthy, he will be right up there, especially in the challenging sprints. But, again, the Tour, even when going for points, is where you need to be tip-top -- if he's not there, he's not in the podium ceremony.
Mountains
Probably a GC man whose bid falls off...otherwise maybe ALEXEY LUTSENKO, BEN HEALY, SANTIAGO BUITRAGO, or NEILSON POWLESS
Youth
I'll go with LENNY MARTINEZ, but also look out for OSCAR ONLEY and FLORIAN LIPOWITZ.
Prediction
Pride month may be over, but that won't stop us from seeing a lot of rainbows during the tour...yellow jersey numba' four for TADEJ POGACAR. Vingegaard and Evenepoel round out the podium. Merlier for the points jersey, and Pogacar for the mountains jersey as well.
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| Thanks for reading |
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