Here we go again...time for the annual 21-round bout via bike around France.
Previously...
Last year we saw an epic two-week battle between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard that looked as though it would go down to the wire until Vingegaard took a huge chunk out of the Slovenian with "the time trial of his life" on the first day of the third week. Then, the unthinkable happened when Pogacar infamously imploded on the climb of the Col de la Loze and bled out about 6 minutes by the time he crossed the line. And, just like that, over the span of two days, two riders who had been separated by seconds over the course of two weeks were now looking at each other across a gulf of almost 8 minutes.
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The moment when everything went sideways for Tadej Pogacar in the 2023 Tour on the Col de la Loze during stage 17
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The Route
Here's the route and my key stages:
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2024 route from procyclingstats.com
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In total, 21 stages and 3491 km of cycling goodness, including 8 days in the high mountains, 5 hilly stages, 6 sprint stages, 2 ITTs, and a frightening cobbled stage around Troyes.
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Stage 1 profile
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The race begins with a bang...the first stage has 3.8 km of vertical ascent. I expect UAE to hit things hard beginning at the final quartet of cat 2/3 climbs to finish and test Vingegaard's fitness early. If here's not at 100% to start the Tour, they can knock him out early. Regardless, I expect UAE to dash all but three or four riders GC hopes starting on stage 1; and if not there, then on...
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Stage 4 profile
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...stage 4, the first Alpine stage. This stage is only slightly harder, but features the first HC climb of the race and is the first stage at altitude. Pogacar doesn't always do well at altitude -- will Bora and Quick Step try to flip the script here and test Pogacar?
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Stage 7 profile
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The first ITT -- there is a climb in the middle, but it's still one for the specialists. The climbers who don't TT well will lose upwards of two minutes compared to the "Big 4" listed above, who are all exceptional TT riders.
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Stage 9 profile
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The gravel stage...Pogacar, this year's winner of Strade, will be fine here. But the other GC men who haven't had such success in Italy might struggle here.
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Stage 14 profile
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The entry to the Pyrenees...over 4 km of vertical ascent, and the final climb is an absolute brute.
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Stage 15 profile
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Over 5 km of vertical ascent! Completely sadistic...what is this, the Vuelta? The second of two days at altitude in the Pyrenees, plus the third week...can other teams expose any weakness in Pogacar here? If Vinegaard has found form, it won't be over yet?
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Stage 19 profile
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Stage 20 profile
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Two more high mountain stages before the race finishes in Nice due to the pending Paris Olympics. There's just no let up! Anything could happen on these two stages, it's simply not over until it's over.
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Stage 21 profile
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The race concludes with the second and final ITT in Nice. It's one for the Big 4, although van Aert could also win here.
Jersey Contenders
Yellow (GC)
For the first time in what seems like a long time, this year's Tour has managed to accrete the four very best GC men of the past half decade or so: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, and Remco Evenepoel. Unfortunately, the training of three of the four (Pogacar being the exception) was interrupted by a near-horror crash in the Tour of the Basque country in April. Regardless, the form table looks something like this:
TADEJ POGACAR -- The Slovenian comes to France pretty in pink, having won the GC at this year's Giro while hauling in a whopping six stage wins and a nearly 10 minute lead over the runner-up.
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Stage win five of six in the Giro...Pogacar will be looking to be the first to pull yellow over pink since Marco Pantani did it in 1998
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It would be sensible to think he might have some fatigue coming off the Giro, but his team management contends otherwise. I thought it would have been wise to shut it down over the past week to turn one eye to July, but he continues to hunt stage wins, there is simply no satisfying his drive for the line. That being said, he's managed his race load meticulously so far this year, competing (and winning) two stage races as well as three classics, winning two of them and finishing on the podium in San Remo, where he was simply out-manned by Alpecin, it would have been impossible for him to win with both van der Poel and Phillipsen in the lead group. So, honestly, he should be fine, which is a bit scary. To boot, he has by far the best team, with grand tour podium finishers (Almeida, Yates, Ayuso) to do pulls in the high mountains and Pollitt and Wellens for the flats. And Soler and Sivakov are exceptional climbers in their own rights, it's downright scary. Pogacar is the only one of the main GC contenders to not have any training setbacks this year, and he has the best team and, on any given day, he can be the best climber. For him not to reclaim the crown will take all the combined wiles of Jumbo, Bora, and Quick Step. It could happen, but it's not likely.
JONAS VINGEGAARD -- The two-time defending champion looked dominant in Tirreno and Gran Camiño early on, then was the one affected most by the crash in the Basque Country. He spent a long time off the bike, and there were huge question marks regarding him simply participating. The topper is, with this year's route, he won't be able to ride into fitness the first week; he has to be sharp from the gun, which won't be easy. But, his talent is otherworldly, and Jumbo are fastidiously meticulous in their preparations; they wouldn't bring him here if he didn't have a shot. And, to be honest, the number of stages in the high mountains is more of a boon to him than Pogacar, and they come late in the race when he has a better chance of finding form.
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On the deck in Itzulia...one of the biggest questions hanging over this year's race is: how has his recovery gone?
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Furthermore, for the first time in year's, the strength of Jumbo's team is in question. They just lost superdomestique Sepp Kuss to illness, Kruijswijk is out with injury, and van Aert is still coming into form following crash injuries. Can they stick with UAE in the high mountains? It seems unlikely, but never underestimate a team with van Aert. It's unfortunate Jumbo no longer have the services of...
PRIMOZ ROGLIC -- When he keeps himself upright, he's one of the best. Unfortunately, that doesn't always happen! He's pictured above in the culvert, but was the least affected of the GC men by the crash in the Basque Country. Crashes cost him the 2022 Vuelta and likely high finishes at the 2021 and 2022 Tours. Otherwise, his stage race CV is rather remarkable. He's already shown good recovery by winning the Dauphine, although he was a bit shaky on the final stage. Combined with a (relatively) poor showing in Paris-Nice, there have been whispers of concern this season.
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All that rises must converge...Primoz Roglic on his way to victory in the 2023 Giro
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An exceptional climber, TT rider, and descender, the former ski jumper vaulted over to Bora specifically to chase the crown this year. And his support group is also exceptional -- last Tour's seventh placer and 2022 Giro winner Jai Hindley; 2022 Tour fifth placer Aleksander Vlasov; Tour stage winner Bob Jungels; and Giro stage winner Matteo Sobrero, among others. I still think his best chance of winning this race was in 2020, when he had his heart ripped out on the stage 20 ITT, but he has the talent, team, and experience to get it done. But he will be one looking to put stage 9 gravel sectors in the rearview.
REMCO EVENEPOEL -- The last of the Big 4, he won the Vuelta in 2022 and was leading the Giro in 2023 before exiting with illness. He looked great before crashing out of Itzulia, including winning the ITT at the Dauphine, but was distanced in the high mountains by Roglic and Co.
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Sufriendo en España...can he hang with the top guns in his first Tour?
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However, the Belgian's talent is unquestioned, and he's the defending world champion in the time trial and the 2022 world champion in the road race, it is a mistake to underestimate him. He has two super helpers in Mikel Landa and Jan Hirt (both multiple time top 10 men in grand tours), and the Wolfpack is generally willing to take risks to accomplish their goals. However, the plethora of high mountains and lack of grand tour experience will hurt...maybe next year.
Who else?
MATTEO JORGENSEN and MIKEL LANDA -- Those who should be the backup plans for Jumbo and Quick Step, respectively. Depending on Vingegaard's status, the American should really be Jumbo's #1 option here, given his runner-up in the Dauphine and simply rousing season to date. Landa has also been quite good this year, though with no wins, and he has far more grand tour experience than Evenepoel. However, the ITTs could spell his demise, especially the one on stage 7, as well as the gravel stage. I expect both to be in the top 10.
CARLOS RODRÍGUEZ -- Fifth in the last year's tour and fourth in the Dauphine, he is flying with a GC win in Romandie and runner-up in the Basque Country. Ineos have named him co-leader with Bernal, I don't think that will last too long despite Bernal's steady return to form this season. On paper, he seems to be the fifth best right now, maybe along with Jorgensen, and he also has a super team with Thomas, Bernal, Kwiatkowsi for the mountains.
LENNY MARTINEZ -- The young French rider has been exceptional the past year, with five stage wins and two top 10 GC rides on stage races, plus a top 10 at Strade. I hope FDJ ride for him in GC, he has a very good shot of taking the young rider jersey and a top 10.
ENRIC MAS -- Top 10? Sure, but I don't see a podium in his future. He crashed out on the first stage last year, and just hasn't had the 1% to stay with the best of the best the past year or so anyway.
RICHARD CARAPAZ -- EF have stated he will go for stage wins after contracting an illness, we'll see. A super talent, the former Giro winner crashed out with Mas on stage 1 last year, but has won thrice this year. Hopefully he aggressively chases stages.
DEREK GEE -- The sweetheart of last year's Giro, he was third (third!) at the Dauphine with a stage win, what a meteoric rise for the Canadian! Israel Premier Tech will likely shove him in the GC competition even though their team is not really built for it; he'd likely be better hunting stages.]
Anyone else?
FELIX GALL, GUILIO CICCONE, and LOUIS MEINTJES will also be looking for top 10s...JUAN AYUSO, JOAO ALMEIDA, and ADAM YATES might also get there even on domestique duty.
Green (points)
JASPER PHILLIPSEN -- Five stage wins and the points jersey last year, not a bad haul for the Belgian. Over the past two years, he's been arguably the fastest in the bunch. He's suffered more losses this year, but the two men who have had his number (Tim Merlier and Jonathon Milan) are absent. The Alpecin team is designed at his disposal to protect the green jersey, including van der Poel once again on the leadout.
MADS PEDERSEN -- The former world champion and multiple Tour stage winner is here instead of Milan, who went head-to-head with Merlier in the Giro. He's had an exceptional season, the problem is he has yet to outsprint Phillipsen, though it's been close on several occasions. With no GC rider on Lidl-Trek, he will get a lot of support in the sprints; I can see the points jersey being an objective.
BRYAN COQUARD --The Frenchmen is still without a stage win in his home grand tour; after Cofidis broke their long stage win drought last year, they will be looking to pour a lot of support into their star sprinter. He seems to allows be there or thereabouts in the sprints; he just has to convert one or more into wins.
MARK CAVENDISH -- The recordman on 34 stage wins, he just needs one more to move past Eddy Merckx for first place on the all-time list. Two wins on the year shows he still has life in the legs, and Astana will do everything possible to make sure he comes away with the record in his final Tour. They've brought a fine leadout group for the Manx man including his long-time leadout man Michael Mørkøv.
ARNAUD DE LIE -- The young Belgian is the only sprinter on the starting line to have bested Phillipsen this year, but he's in his first grand tour, so inexperience will likely be a huge issue. Regardless, he'll be in contention in the sprints.
BINIAM GIRMAY -- The Eritrean will be looking to find the success he couldn't at this race last year. He got a win at the Circuit Franco-Belge after crashing out of the Giro early, so the form seems to be good as well as the recovery.
Polkadots (mountain)
GIULIO CICCONE -- The winner of the mountains competition last year, he'll be back looking for stage wins in my opinion and not the GC, although he is likely capable of both. No GC rider means he will have a lot of freedom.
ROMAIN BARDET -- A French legend in his last Tour before shifting to gravel next year. The team have stated he's not looking for GC, so stage wins in the mountains it is. Those breakaways tend to come with a lot of mountains points, so why not?
NIELSON POWLESS -- EF is looking for stages, and the American will be looking to find success finally on this season, so he'll be in a lot of breakaways.
FELIX GALL -- I think his GC bid will come apart early, and he'll end up collecting a lot of points in the second and third weeks of the race.
White (youth)
LENNY MARTINEZ -- See above
Prediction
The return of the king...Pogacar for the GC win followed by Roglic and Carlos Rodríguez.
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Thanks for reading
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