2023 Men's Tour de France Preview

 It's the most wonderful time of the year...

The Tour de France is phenomenon that needs no explanation, but it usually looks something like the following:

The group of the malliot jaune climbing L'Alpe d'Huez in 2018 -- how many countries' flags do you see represented?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This year's route covers 3,404 kilometers over the standard 21 stages. It starts in the Basque Countries and finishes in Paris...as usual. Here's the map:

The 2023 Men's Tour de France route in all its glory

My Key Stages 

In contrast to most years, the first week is quite difficult, not unexpected given that the race begins the Basque Country. The first two stages are reminiscent of what one might see in Itzulia, especially given the inclusion of the Jaizkibel climb on stage 2. Any rider who comes in undercooked in the first week could easily be 'found out' before the race even enters France, and those of Basque descent and in possession of good climbing legs early (I'm especially thinking of Pello Bilbao) should be on the hunt the first three stages, but it is also highly likely either van der Poel of van Aert take the yellow jersey early. I would also expect Jumbo-Visma to test the recently under-raced Tadej Pogačar to see where his fitness is. Expect some major players in the GC battle to ship time early if this scenario plays out...

Stage 2 profile taken from procyclingstats.com. The Jaizkibel features as the last climb, with bonus second over the top to boot

 The difficult continues to ramp up as the race enters the Pyrenees, with the souvenir Jacques Goddert to be handed out on stage 6 and the return of the mythical Puy de Dôme on stage 9, the last racing day before the first rest day.

Stage 9 profile taken from procyclingstats.com. It features the return of the Puy de Dôme after a 35-year absence. The climb is infamous from an incident that took place during its ascent in the 1975 Tour, when a fan punched Eddy Merckx in the lower back, which is speculated to have generated the lower back problems that contributed to the waning of Merckx's career as a professional cyclist.

 

The second week supplies mostly rolling stages (a puncheur's delight!) with a whopping weekend of climbs totaling nearly 9 000 meters of climbing Saturday-Sunday, that coming after the mountaintop finish on the Grand Colombier on Friday. Dedpending on how Vingegaard is going, we could see Wout van Aert hoover up a lot of green jersey points in the second week.

 

The third and final week starts with a 22km TT that favors the climbers, with the souvenir Henri Desgranges handed out the following day once the leading rider goes over the summit of the Col de la Loze on stage 17, a day with a massive 5399 meters of ascent. This will likely be the last day of big GC action prior to the penultimate stage that finishes at Le Markstein and bears a striking similarity to the penultimate stage in last year's Tour de France Femmes (avec Zwift). 

Stage 17 profile taken from procyclingstats.com. It features the last HC climb of the race and could be the last day where we see big GC action

 

The race finishes with the traditional sprinter's delight on the Champs d'Elysées.

Riders to Watch

GC (yellow jersey)

TADEJ POGAČAR -- Nearly unbeatable early this season, he still boasts a 67% percent strike rate in races completed this year. The fractured wrist he suffered at Liège-Bastogne-Liège is the first major setback of his professional careers, but he has already responded with a double victory at the Slovenian national championships. He dominated all comers in Paris-Nice and the Ardennes classics, he was existing in a different universe than everyone else. I think the only thing that set him back last year was over-aggression in the first week. If he makes it through the first week without suffering time losses, look out. I think his only real weakness is burning matches early and un-necessarily -- if he rides defensively when he should, he has a murder's row of domestiques (Yates, Majka, and Soler, in particular) to carry him in the high mountains. I think anything less than a multiple-minute victory would be a disappointment for him.

JONAS VINGEGAARD -- The defending champion seemed a step behind in the early season races, Paris-Nice in particular, but July is not March! He has come down from altitude swinging, with dominant displays in the Itzulia and the Dauphine. He has the TT and climbing prowess to match the above and perhaps a bit more racing maturity. For me the big difference is Pogacar's seemingly unworldy accelerations on the climbs; I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like it. Really, these two are 1 and 1a to me, the differences between could come down to subtle things such as whose domestiques are riding better, missing a gel at a crucial moment, taking the wrong line on a descent, etc. Vingegaard will miss Roglic's support this early, but the lineup of Kelderman, Kuss, Benoot, and van Aert for the mountains is still outstanding.

DAVID GAUDU -- last year's fourth place finisher has had a season of two halves. I would think his recent results (30th at the Dauphine and blowing up at the French championships) are the opposite of what was wanted going in. Early in the season, he was the only one able to follow Pogacar's accelerations in Paris-Nice, but since things have been less rosy. However, FDJ dropped Demare to support him, so France can hope, as he certainly has the talent and the palmarès for a podium in Paris.

ENRIC MAS -- Three times the runner-up at La Vuelta, he has no wins so far this season and seems a bit off pace compared to his monster second half of the 2022 season. He is a very consistent climber, but like others, his preparation races did not go as planned. Anything less than top 5 would be a letdown, I would think.

MIKEL LANDA -- Seemingly always there or thereabouts in grand tour GCs, he has twice finished on the podium at the Giro and has two fourth places at the Tour. Another with a Dauphine to forget, his one-week results this season have been good, plus a podium at the Arrow of Wallonia. The Basque rider has Haig, Bilbao, and Poels for the moutains, that's quite a lineup, can he finally crack the podium this year?

SIMON YATES -- The 2018 Vuelta winner hasn't raced in over two months and has no victories in Europe this season, but is quality. He should be challenging for top 5.

DANNY MARTÍNEZ -- Another super talent, he won Algarve early in the season, but his Dauphine was not up to snuff for a GC contender in the Tour. He will have good support with a restoring Egan Bernal, Kwiatkowski, Fraile, and Castroviejo, but, honestly, Ineos might just be going for stages.

RICHARD CARAPAZ -- He has certainly not had the season he's wanted so far, despite looking resplendent in the Ecuadorian champion's jersey. At the risk of sounding like an improperly terminated FOR loop, he did not have the Dauphine he wanted, although he was one of the bigger animators of the race. If he has finally found form, the podium is very much in play.

MATTIAS SKJELMOSE -- Why not? The Tour de Suisse winner is on a great run of form, although this will be only his second grand tour, so lack of experience could be a big factor. Will likely go for stages wins, not GC.

 

JAI HINDLEY -- Last year's Giro champion actually went well in the Dauphine. He will have Jungels, Buchmann, and Konrad for support in the mountains.

Others shooting for a top 10 will likely include MIKEL LANDA, LOUIS MEINTJES, ADAM YATES (probably not, Pogacar duty), ROMAIN BARDET, GUILAUME MARTIN, and THIBAUT PINOT. 

Points

WOUT VAN AERT -- Last year's points winner, he can climb, he can sprint, and he can TT. I think the only thing that can stop him from repeating is Vingegaard duty.

MATHIEU VAN DER POEL -- Perhaps the only one comparable to van Aert right now, we will see if he makes the green jersey a priority. He has no GC man to look after, but will likely play leadout for Phillipsen, which complicates things. In fact...

JASPER PHILIPSEN -- Maybe the best sprinter in the men's peloton right now. He won two stages last year, but will he be able or interested at picking up enough intermediate points to contend for the green jersey? We will see.

 

MADS PEDERSEN -- "Mad" Mads is back after a storming three weeks last year, including a stage win. He won the points classification at last year's Vuelta, and was leading that classification at the Giro this year before exiting with COVID-19. Form is a bit unknown, given his only race since has been the Danish national championships, but he had strong spring, including top fives in Roubaix, de Ronde, Dwars, Gent-Wevelgem and a stage win in Paris-Nice.

BINIAM GIRMAY -- The first Tour for the young Eritrean, winning a stage would be massive for cycling in that country (just see the reaction after he won the stage in the Tour de Suisse this year!). He is riding well and can climb, he has a chance.

MARK CAVENDISH -- Twice the winner of this classification, he picked up a nice win the Giro. A stage win here will give him the record of 35 stage wins in the Tour. I don't think he will pick up enough intermediate points to contend, but a stage win would give him a fairy-tale end to his storied TdF career in his final professional season.

PETER SAGAN -- the record man with seven green jerseys, he is also in his last season. Has shown signs of life with a few top 5s this year, but no wins so far. He is another who would be delighted to win a stage in his last professional season on the roads.

Mountains (polka dot jersey)

THIBAUT PINOT -- This classification is always tricky to handicap, but Pinot would likely be delighted to step on the podium in Paris in his last (?) professional season. He is climbing well, as evidenced by the mountains jersey and fifth place at this year's Giro, he is certainly riding with fire right now. A stage win would send the country into pandemonium.

TADEJ POGAČAR -- he has won it before, he can do it again...by accident.

Perhaps also keep an eye on RUI COSTA, LOUIS MEINTJES, ROMAIN BARDET, WARREN BARGUIL, MIKEL LANDA, MICHAEL WOODS, GIULIO CICCONE, and NEILSON POWLESS.

 

Young (white jersey)

TADEJ POGAČAR -- See above.

Podium Prediction

1st: Pogacar

2nd: Vingegaard

3rd: Hindley

Déjà vu? Thanks for reading