2024 Vuelta España Femeninia Stage 5 Preview

 I missed the first four stages; I will hope to make up for it here.

It's the first mountain stage of the race and, if not for the echelons yesterday, I would say the first real GC day as well. Short, but with two categorized climbs, with the finishing summit a classic Vuelta-type finish.

Stage profile from procyclingstats.com



Tactically, I expect a break to stay away under the first climb, where SD Worx will likely hammer things to set the finale up for Demi Vollering. A fast tempo on the long but gradual first climb could put some riders in trouble, but otherwise shouldn't be too much of a challenge

Profile of the final climb from procyclingstats.com

The final climb is short, but steep, and I expect it to be ridden hard from the base, which will likely see big gaps (1+ minute) emerge between some of the GC contenders. The race wouldn't be decided on this stage, but a few will certainly have their hopes crushed.

Contenders for the Stage

DEMI VOLLERING -- Many have contended she has been off-peak so far this year, especially given her contract situation with SD Worx, but I am not so sure. Sure she is still without a win on the season, but four podiums in major classics isn't bad and one in one them a teammate won up the road. I also think the team management has been careful to time peaks for the grand tours, so I don't see a concern. I think she's the best climber at this race, and SD Worx will do everything it takes on this stage to set her up for the win.

KASIA NIEWIADOMA -- Finally got a well-deserved road win at Fleche a few weeks ago, it was a long time coming. A hugely consistent rider with podiums at the Tour the last two years, her confidence will be high right now, and for good reason. The finale also suits her, and she bested Vollering at Fleche, so a win is very much in play.

ELISA LONGO BORGHINI -- I've heard Lidl-Trek is riding GC for Realini, but I'm not sure that's the best idea given Longo Borghini's results so far this season with wins at de Rhone and De Brabantse Pijl, plus second at Strade, she is also in quite the purple patch. And her climbing has been exceptional so far this season, so the final climb should be well within her capabilities to stay at the front.

GAIA REALINI -- Lidl-Trek's protected rider? I'll be honest, the results so far this season haven't been quite as good as the barnstormer that was 2023, and I think the final climb is a bit too short for her to compete with the above three riders.

I don't think anyone else is quite at the level of the four riders listed above, but LIANE LIPPERT and JULIETTE LABOUS should also be within a shout. I don't see a breakaway staying away, so I won't give any breakaway riders a chance.

Prediction

Demi Vollering is my predicted winner, but I think it will be close, only about 15 seconds or so ahead of Niewiadoma and Longo Bourghini with bigger gaps to the rest.

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